Not something I believe full stop, but imo there are signs that should there be a bubble, it will pop later than we may think. A few things for consideration.
Big tech continues to invest. They are greedy. They aren’t stupid. They have access to better economic forcasting than we do. I believe they are aware of markets for the /application/ of AI which will continue to be profitable in the future. Think of how many things are pOwErEd By ArTiFiCiAl InTelIGence. That’s really speak for we have api tokens we pay for.
Along these lines comes the stupid. Many of us have bosses who insist, if not demand, we use AI. The US Secretary of Defense had his own obnoxious version if this earlier this week. If the stupid want it, the demand will remain if not increase.
Artificial intellegence is self replicating, meaning if we feed it with whatever stupid queries we make, it will “get better” at the specifics and “create more versions”. This creates further reliance and demand on those products that “do exactly what we want”. It’s an opiate. Like that one tng episode with the headsets (weak allusion and shameless pandering I know)
IMO generative AI is a dead end which will only exacerbate existing inequity. That doesn’t mean there won’t continue to be tremendous buy in which will warp our collective culture maintaining it’s profitability. If the bubble bursts, I don’t think it will be for a while.
Disagree.
In fact, there are signs that extensive “user preference” training is deep frying models, so they score better in settings like LM Arena but get worse at actual work. See: ChatGPT 5.2, Gemini 2.5 Experimental before it regressed at release, Mistral’s latest deepseek-arch release, Qwen3’s reduction in world knowledge vs 2.5, and so on.
And also, they don’t train themselves, they don’t learn on the go; that’s all manually done.
No, but… The execs are drinking a lot of Kool-aid, at least going from their public statements and behavior. Zuckerburg, for example, has completely gutted his best AI team, the literal inventor of modern open LLM infrastructure, for a bunch of tech bros with egos bigger than their contributions. OpenAI keeps making desperate short-term decisions instead of (seemingly) investing in architectural experimentation, giving everyone an easy chance to catch them. Google and Meta are poisoning their absolute best data sources, and it’s already starting to bite Meta.
Honestly, I don’t know what they’re thinking.
…I think the bubble will drag on for some time.
But I’m a massive local LLM advocate, and I’m telling you: it’s a bubble. These transformers(ish) LLMs are useful tools, not human replacements that will scale infinitely. That last bit is a scam.
They are thinking that if you get the hype train fast enough, nothing will slow it down and by the time everyone realizes it’s all bullshit, you already have your third yacht and have cashed out.
US tech is driven by Boomer investors with too much money, too much greed, and too little education.